🔗 Share this article

The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.