A mere eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach admonished him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. As Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough query to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an xG notably superior than the other team. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, they look curiously susceptible – but currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their star man to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The winger might become the force he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
